RSS Epidemics Workshop 1997 - PROGRAMME

Character of the Programme

It must be emphasized that the meeting is intended to be informal and flexible. Thus:

• surveys, presentations of work in progress and of open problems are particularly encouraged;
• The length of presentations is flexible; we have called everything except surveys `short', but the actual length is negotiable -- mostly 20 to 45 minutes we suggest.
• additional contributions, either to the paper or the discussion sessions will be welcome as the workshop develops; those not yet down to speak should be especially prepared for this! (They should come with collections of useful overheads if available as well as copies of their own papers as useful references for others.)
• the programme, especially for the second week, has been left flexible so that discussions, either general or in small groups, can develop out of the iniital review sessions;
• in short: the workshop belongs to the participants! we will welcome suggestions of additions or modifications to the programme, either in advance or as discussions develop.

Programme (provisional!)

DAY 0 (Mon 31st March): Arrival; Reception

DAY 1 (Tues 1st April):

9.00-12.30 Heterogeneity of mixing and spatio-temporal models -- Reviews

• Ben Bolker: Heterogeneity of mixing and spatio-temporal models: advances and open problems
• David Rand: Correlations & fluctuations in ecology and infection
• Discussion

• Mick Roberts: The immunoepidemiology of parasites of farmed animals
• Hans Heesterbeek: Population dynamics of immunity
• Barbara Hellriegel: Immunoepidemiology: a problem-oriented approach
• Discussion

DAY 2 (Wed 2nd April):

9.00-12.30 Genetic, ecological and evolutionary dynamics -- Reviews:

• Bryan Grenfell et al: `Four years on: recent progress in parasite ecology and evolutionary biology'
• Victor Apanius: Lymphocytes talk about modelling immunity
• Matt Keeling
• Bill Amos: Population genetics is dead, long live population genetics: new ways to infer population history and population structure from genetics
• Peter Hudson

• Hakan Andersson: Epidemics and Random graphs
• Niels Becker: Assessing the consequences of ignoring heterogeneity when planning vaccination strategies
• Frank Ball: Models for the spread of epidemics with two levels of mixing
• Martina Morris: Spatial network information available from the Ugandan sexual behavior study
• Discussion:

DAY 3 (Thurs 3rd April):

9.00-12.30 Statistical issues in modelling and data analysis -- Reviews:

• Niels Becker and Tom Britton: Statistical studies of disease transmission: an overview
• Niels Keiding: Statistical themes in infectious disease epidemiology
• Discussion: (incl. Jonathan Swinton)

DAY 4 (Fri 4th April):

9.00-12.30 Genetic, ecological and evolutionary dynamics -- Short papers:

• Klaus Dietz: Demography, immunology and transmission dynamics
• Margaret Mackinnon: Host selection against parasite recombination
• Peter Hudson: Tick-borne diseases
• Andy Dobson: Allometric scaling of mathematical models for macroparasites and microparasites
• Jonathan Swinton

• INFEMAT project (Mervi Eerola)
• BSE epidemiology (Neil Ferguson)

DAY 5 (Sat 5th April):

9.00-12.30 Statistical issues in modelling and data analysis -- Short papers:

• Tom Britton: Estimation of individual heterogeneities
• Mart de Jong: Experiments to test measures that stop transmission: statistical analysis and power calculations
• Ake Svensson: Statistical analysis based on incomplete and distorted observations of epidemic processes
• Rodney Wolff: Non-parametric detection of outbreaks
• Philip O'Neill: Bayesian inference for partially observed stochastic epidemics

• Ingemar Naasell: On endemic SIR models
• Mick Roberts: The dynamics of measles in New Zealand
• Matt Keeling: The uses of dyad models for measles epidemics
• Bryan Grenfell

DAY 6 (Sun 6th April): Rest day

Excursion to see other parts of Skye

DAY 7 (Mon 7th April):

9.00-13.00 Small group discussions

16.00-18.30 Small group discussions (continued)

DAY 8 (Tues 8th April):

9.00-12.30 Discussion on issues in Genetic, ecological and evolutionary dynamics

• Parameterisation of transmission (de Jong)
• Persistence in microparasites; scale of parasite-host interactions; vectors and emergence of of disease
• Determinants of endemic disease in humans (Ferguson)
• Control strategies in multiple drug use (Mackinnon)
• Stochastic fade-out (Naasell)

• Modeling frameworks that permit comparative analyses of models (Morris, Andersson)
• Combination of deterministic (large population) and stochastic (local contact structure) effects (Diekman, de Jong, Morris)
• Empirical modeling (statistical and dynamic) of sexual behaviour and networks (Morris)
• Linking spatial models to network models (Morris)

DAY 9 (Wed 9th April):

9.00-12.30 Discussion on Statistical issues:

• Data requirements for determining vaccination strategies (Becker)
• Use and improvement of surveillance registers for infectious diseases (Becker)
• Available data sets and their analysis (de Jong)
• Risk analysis for politicians! (Roberts)
• Estimation and hypothesis testing of transmission parameters (Becker, de Jong)
• Using nonlinear time series models in epidemics (Wolff)

DAY 10 (Thurs 10th April):

9.00-12.30 Discussion on Immunoepidemiology

• Combination of population genetics and epidemiological models of strain structure arising from multiple locus immune selection and cross immunity (Mackinnon)
• Interaction between immunity to parasites and epidemiology/population dynamics (Roberts)

DAY 11 (Fri 11th April):

9.00-12.30 Final discussions: key current issues and avenues for future research in each of four topic areas, and by area of application

• Models: Sensitivity/robustness of models to assumptions (Britton)

Closing party

DAY 12 (Sat 12th April): Departure

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Please send any comments or corrections to Denis Mollison

2nd April 1997