A fair three-option referendum?
However, when the options have a natural order, as in the case of the Scottish
independence referendum (no change - more powers - independence),
the situation is simpler.
The options can be put using just two
questions, and it is virtually impossible not to have a clear winner.
A recent YouGov poll (Feb 2012), which asked for voters' second as
well as first preferences, confirms that voters do treat the three
Scottish options as having a natural order, and thus confirm that
there are three fair ways to hold a three-option referendum
that are essentially equivalent, so that any one of them should yield
a clear and fair result.
A fuller explanation can be downloaded here:
A fair three-option referendum?
[5 page pdf file (256 KB)]
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Denis Mollison, 17 April 2012