Department of Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics


Professor Angus Macdonald BSc PhD FFA FRSE


Brief CV here.

New Text on Mortality Modelling!

Coming in Spring 2018, Modelling Mortality with Actuarial Applications by Angus S Macdonald, Stephen J Richards and Iain D Currie. Published in the Cambridge University Press International Series on Actuarial Science, this brand-new book shows actuaries how to use survival models in their work, covering the subject in depth, from its modern theoretical basis all the way to useable R code.

The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences

The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, part of the Edinburgh Research Partnership, pools all the research and postgraduate activities in the three mathematical sciences departments at Heriot-Watt University and the University of Edinburgh.

The Institute aims to be an internationally pre-eminent centre for research and for postgraduate training in the mathematical sciences, and to offer an environment that is able to attract and foster the very best mathematical talent from around the world.

The Scottish Financial Risk Academy

The Scottish Financial Risk Academy was set up in April 2010 by a consortium of founder members led by the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences. Until 2013 it was funded by a grant of 335,000 from the Scottish Funding Council and contributions by founder members. Since 2013 it has continued to be funded by its member organisations, numbering more than 20. The consortium of founder members of the SFRA comprises the Maxwell Institute, Scottish Financial Enterprise, The Actuarial Profession, Aberdeen Asset Management, Barrie & Hibbert, and Lloyds Banking Group. The SFRA runs a series of Knowledge Exchange activities designed to improve the interaction between the academic sector and the financial services industry. These include biannual Risk Colloquia, Knowledge Transfer Workshops, placements for MSc and PhD students, and postgraduate course modules taught by industry professionals.

The Genetics and Insurance Research Centre

I am director of the Genetics and Insurance Research Centre (GIRC) established in the Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics (part of the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences at Heriot-Watt University) in 1999. This is an independent research unit, with industry funding, whose task is to develop mathematical models of the impact of human genetics on policyholders, insurers and care providers.

Introduction to Scientific Writing, June 2012

MSc and research students can download the short draft article here.

Present Research Interests

The implications for insurance of human genetics.

Stochastic modelling applied to life office solvency.

Mortality/morbidity models.

Publications

Ljeskovac, M., Dickson, D.C.M., Kilpatrick, S., Macdonald, A.S., Miller, K.A. & Paterson, I.M. (1991). A model office investigation of the potential impact of AIDS on non-linked life assurance business (with discussion). Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 42, 187-276.

Macdonald, A.S. (1991) On Investment Strategies Using the Wilkie Model. Transactions of the 2nd AFIR International Colloquium, Brighton 1991, 3:413-427.

Paul, D.R.L., Eastwood, A.M., Hare, D.J.P, Macdonald, A.S., Muirhead, J.R., Mulligan, J.F., Pike, D.M. & Smith, E.F. (1993). Restructuring mutuals - principles and practice (with discussion). Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 43, 167-277 and 353-375.

Macdonald, A.S. (1993) What is the Value of a Valuation? Transactions of the 3rd AFIR International Colloquium, Rome 1993, 2:725-743.

Macdonald, A.S. (1994) Appraising Life Office Valuations. Transactions of the 4th AFIR International Colloquium, Orlando 1994, 3:1163-1183.

Macdonald, A.S. (1994) A Note on Life Office Models. Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries 44:64-72.

Macdonald, A.S. (1995) A Stochastic Evaluation of Solvency Valuations for Life Offices. Ph.D. Thesis, Heriot-Watt University.

Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data. I: Multiple State, Binomial and Poisson Models. British Actuarial Journal, 2, 129-155.

Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data. II: Competing Risks, Non-Parametric and Regression Models. British Actuarial Journal, 2, 429-448.

Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data. III: Counting Process Models. British Actuarial Journal, 2, 703-726.

Macdonald, A.S. (editor) (1997) The Second Actuarial Study of Mortality in Europe. Groupe Consultatif des Associations d'Actuaires des Payes des Communautes Europeennes, Oxford (ISBN 0-9510763-4-5).

Macdonald, A.S. (1997) The United Kingdom. Chapter 18 of The Second Actuarial Study of Mortality in Europe. Groupe Consultatif des Associations d'Actuaires des Payes des Communautes Europeennes, Oxford.

Macdonald, A.S. (1997) How will improved forecasts of individual lifetimes affect underwriting? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 352, 1067-1075 and (with discussion) British Actuarial Journal, 3, 1009-1025.

Macdonald, A.S. (1997) Current actuarial modelling practice and related issues and questions. North American Actuarial Journal, 1:3, 24-35.

Eastwood, A.M., Ledlie, M.C., Macdonald, A.S. & Pike, D.M. (1997) With-profits maturity payouts, asset shares and smoothing (with discussion). Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 44, 497-575.

Macdonald, A.S. (1997) The hypotheses underlying the pricing of options: a note on a paper by Bartels. Proceedings of the 7th AFIR International Colloquium, Cairns, 1997, 2, 617-630.

Macdonald, A.S., Cairns, A.J.G., Gwilt, P.A. & Miller, K.A. (1998). An international comparison of recent trends in population mortality. British Actuarial Journal, 4, 3-141.

Lockyer, J., Brett, P.G., Hannington, S.A., Lockyer, J.A.N., Macdonald, A.S. & Woods, J.J. (1998). Genetic science and its implications for life insurance. Transactions of the 26th International Congress of Actuaries, Birmingham, 1998, 3, 101-129.

Macdonald, A.S. (1999) Modeling the impact of genetics on insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 3:1, 83-101.

Berketi, A. & Macdonald, A.S. (1999). The effect of the nature of the liabilities on the solvency and maturity payouts of a UK life office fund: a stochastic evaluation. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 24, 117-138.

Warren, V., Brett, P., Macdonald, A.S., Plumb, R.H. & Read, A.P. (1999). Genetic tests and future need for long-term care in the UK: Report of a Work Group of the Continuing Care Conference Genetic Tests and Long-term Care Study Group. Continuing Care Conference, London.

Macdonald, A.S. (2000). Human Genetics and Insurance Issues. In Bio-ethics for the new millenium, ed, I. Torrance. St Andrew Press.

Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2000). A mathematical model of Alzheimer's disease and the ApoE gene. ASTIN Bulletin, 30, 69-110.

Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2001). Genetics, Alzheimer's disease and long-term care insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 5:2, 54-78.

Macdonald, A.S. (2001). Genetic information and insurance. Genetics Law Monitor, 2:1, 1-5.

Gui, E.H. & Macdonald, A.S. (2002). A Nelson-Aalen Estimate of the Incidence Rates of Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Associated With the Presenilin-1 Gene. ASTIN Bulletin, 32, 1-42.

Macdonald, A.S. (2002). Genetics and Health Costs: Some Actuarial Models. Law, Probability and Risk, 1, 97-118.

Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003a). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer I: A model of family history. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 1-27.

Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003b). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer II: A model of critical illness insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 28-50.

Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Genetics and Insurance: What Have We Learned So Far? Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 324-348.

Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Adult Polycystic Kidney Disease and Critical Illness Insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 7:2, 93-115.

Daykin, C.D., Akers, D.A., Macdonald, A.S., McGleenan, T., Paul, D. & Turvey, P.J. (2003). Genetics and Insurance - Some Social Policy Issues (with discussions). British Actuarial Journal, 9, 787-874.

Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Moratoria on the use of genetic tests and family history for mortgage-related life insurance. British Actuarial Journal, 9, 217-237.

Macdonald, A.S. & Yang, S.Y. (2003). Highly Penetrant Genetic Disorders: An Atlas for Critical Illness Insurance. British Actuarial Journal, 9, 875-901. Additional information (Occasional Actuarial Research Document No. 42, deposited in the libraries of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries).

Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Huntington's Disease, Critical Illness Insurance and Life Insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2004, 279-313.

Willets, R.C., Gallop, A.P., Leandro, P.A., Lu, J.L.C., Macdonald, A.S., Miller, K.A., Richards, S.J., Robjohns, N., Ryan, J.P & Waters, H.R. (2004). Longevity in the 21st Century. British Actuarial Journal, 10, 685-832.

Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Genetics and insurance. In Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science (eds. J. Teugels & B. Sundt). John Wiley, Chichester.

Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Life insurance. In Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science (eds. J. Teugels & B. Sundt). John Wiley, Chichester.

Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Genetics and insurance management. In The Swedish Society of Actuaries: One Hundred Years (ed. A. Sandstrom). Svenska Aktuarieforeningen, Stockholm.

Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A model for coronary heart disease and stroke, with applications to critical illness insurance underwriting I: The model. North American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 41-56.

Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A model for coronary heart disease and stroke, with applications to critical illness insurance underwriting II: Applications. North American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 13-40.

Macdonald, A.S., Straughn, J.S. & Sutton, M. (2006). Healthy life expectancy measurement in Scotland. British Actuarial Journal, 12, 327-394.

Macdonald, A.S., Pritchard, D.J. & Tapadar, P. (2006). The impact of multifactorial genetic disorders on critical illness insurance: A simulation study based on UK Biobank. ASTIN Bulletin, 36, 311-346.

Gui, E.H., Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2006). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer III: A new model of family history with applications. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2006, 338-367.

Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2006). Application of a polygenic model of breast and ovarian cancer to critical illness insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 1, 319-343. Erratum. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 413-419.

Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Adult polycystic kidney disease and insurance: A case study in genetic heterogeneity. North American Actuarial Journal, 11:1, 90-118.

Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Yu, F. (2007). A dynamic family history model of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer and critical illness insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 289-325.

Espinosa, C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). A correction for ascertainment bias in estimating rates of onset of highly penetrant genetic disorders. ASTIN Bulletin, 37, 429-452.

Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Insurance. In Handbook of Statistical Genetics (third edition), eds. Balding, D.J., Bishop, M. & Cannings, C.. John Wiley, Chichester.

Mitchell, R.J., Ferguson, R.K., Macdonald, A.S., Dunlop, M.G., Campbell, H. & Porteous, M.E. (2008). Cascade genetic testing for mismatch repair gene mutations, Familial Cancer, 7, 293-301.

Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Wekwete, C.T. (2008). Premium rates based on genetic studies: How reliable are they? Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42, 319-331.

Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease and stroke I: The model. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3, 45-81.

Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease and stroke II: Modelling obesity. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3, 83-103.

Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease and stroke III: Applications. Annals of Actuarial Science, 105-119.

Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). Sampling distributions of critical illness insurance premium rates: Breast and ovarian cancer. ASTIN Bulletin, 38, 527-542.

Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2009). Modelling adverse selection in the presence of a common genetic disorder: The breast cancer polygene, ASTIN Bulletin, 39, 373-402.

Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2010). Pensions and genetics: Can longevity genes be reliable risk factors for annuity pricing?, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2010, 1-14.

Macdonald, A.S. (2010). Survival analysis on pedigrees: A marked point process model, ASTIN Bulletin, 40, 35-64.

Macdonald, A.S. & Tapadar, P. (2010). Multifactorial genetic disorders and adverse selection: Epidemiology meets economics, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(1), 155-182.

Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2011). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer IV: A model of breast cancer progression, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2011, 239-266.

Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Yu, F. (2011). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer V: Application to income protection insurance, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2011, 267-291.

Macdonald, A.S. & Yu, F. (2011). The impact of genetic information on the insurance industry: Conclusions from the `bottom-up' modelling programme, ASTIN Bulletin, 41, 343-376.

Joly, Y., Burton, H., Knoppers, B.M., Feze, I.N., Dent, T., Pashayan, N., Chowdhury, S., Foulkes, W., Hall, A., Hamet, P., Kirwan, N., Macdonald, A., Simard, J. & Van Hoyweghen, I. (2014). Life insurance: Genomic stratification and risk classification. European Journal of Human Genetics, 22(5), 575-579..

Adams, C.J., Donnelly, C.A. & Macdonald, A.S. (2015). The impact of known breast cancer polygenes on critical illness insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2015, 141-171.

Adams, C.J., Donnelly, C.A. & Macdonald, A.S. (2015). Adverse selection in a start-up long-term care insurance market (with discussion). , British Actuarial Journal, 20, 298-365.

Hao, M., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2016). Insurance loss coverage under restricted risk classification: The case of iso-elastic demand. ASTIN Bulletin, 46, 265-291.

Hao, M., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2018) Insurance loss coverage and demand elasticities. To appear in Insurance: Mathematics & Economics.


The Story of the Tossers

The actuarial profession in the U.K. has invented ``The Actuarial Philosophy'' and ``The Actuarial Scientific Method''. The Story of the Tossers tells of another profession which had a similar idea.


Angus Macdonald / Heriot-Watt University / A.S.Macdonald@hw.ac.uk